Let’s be actual: The Week 2 faculty soccer slate’s impression on the playoff race is … minimal.
Of the 82 contests that includes FBS groups, there are solely two video games — two! — during which each groups have Faculty Soccer Playoff leverage of at the least 1%, based on the Allstate Playoff Predictor. In different phrases, there are simply two video games during which the distinction in likelihood to achieve the playoff with a win and with a loss exceeds 1%.
Alabama at Texas is the apparent candidate with professional playoff leverage for every workforce — although the Crimson Tide have an 82% likelihood to win, per ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index. The opposite sport is Baylor at BYU, during which the Cougars squeak in with a single proportion level of playoff leverage in what ought to be a tighter affair (FPI makes Baylor a 58% favourite).
That is it. There are different video games which can be consequential within the sense that they may have an effect on the playoff race if the contending favourite loses.
Once more, in different phrases — outdoors of the 2 contests talked about on the high — this week is all about groups defending their playoff possibilities and paths. Let’s discuss these two video games, what different groups may journey up in Week 2 and what the impression could be. We’ll ignore these with a 90+% likelihood to win and give attention to the at the least barely possible losses.
Alabama (82% likelihood to win) at Texas
Alabama playoff leverage: 19%
Texas playoff leverage: 14%
FPI is all concerning the Longhorns, at the least comparatively. Although Texas is nowhere to be discovered among the many AP High 25, our predictive mannequin is a believer, making Texas the seventh-best workforce within the nation going ahead. Whereas FPI is not precisely anticipating an in depth final result (it favors the Crimson Tide by 12.8 factors), it does count on a more in-depth contest than Caesars Sportsbook, which has Alabama as a 20-point favourite.
An Alabama loss would drop the Crimson Tide to a 68% likelihood to achieve the playoff, placing them behind solely Ohio State and Georgia however nonetheless forward of Clemson. It could additionally rocket Texas as much as a 23% likelihood to achieve the playoff, which might be the sixth-highest likelihood. A Texas win would give the Longhorns respiration room: In the event that they received the Massive 12, even when they dropped a sport elsewhere, they’d stay a lock to achieve the playoff with the convention title and win over Alabama. That is nonetheless an enormous if, although.
Notre Dame playoff leverage: 14%
A loss to Ohio State is definitely forgivable within the (forecasted) eyes of the choice committee. A loss to Marshall? Not a lot, and it will be a playoff projection killer, clearly.
That is firmly within the extreme-long-shots-but-not-literally-impossible class, to be honest. However FPI respects Marshall: The Thundering Herd are the No. 53-ranked workforce and the fifth-best Group of 5 workforce, based on the mannequin.
Baylor (58% likelihood to win) at BYU
Baylor playoff leverage: 8%
BYU playoff leverage: 1%
That is Baylor’s most troublesome contest till it heads to Norman to face Oklahoma in November. However the upside is there for the Bears: If they will get previous the Cougars — who’re within the AP High 25 however are simply on the skin for FPI (No. 28) — and Texas loses to Alabama, Baylor would turn into the Massive 12’s finest likelihood at turning into a playoff workforce at 13%.
BYU will not be actually a playoff contender — the Cougars sits at below 1% and, even when they completed undefeated, they’d have lower than a 50% likelihood of incomes a bid — however would tick up with a win in opposition to Baylor, as that is the Cougars’ second-most troublesome contest this yr (apart from Notre Dame).
USC playoff leverage: 5%
In the event you’d requested me which workforce I used to be most involved with FPI being low on within the preseason, USC would have been it. However the mannequin adjusts, and one sport later the Allstate Playoff Predictor provides the Trojans the Eleventh-best shot to achieve the playoff. However that would shortly evaporate in Lincoln Riley’s first Pac-12 convention sport if USC slips up in opposition to Stanford.
Tennessee playoff leverage: 4%
FPI is shopping for the Volunteers within the sense that they’re on this record in any respect. If Tennessee was by some means to achieve the playoff (we’re stretching in a lightweight week right here, OK?), the trail of least resistance would most likely be a single loss, to Georgia, and ending 11-1. However truly, in any state of affairs, there is no manner Tennessee can afford a loss to Pittsburgh with each the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide on its schedule later this yr.